An exciting article for anyone following the anti-corruption
campaign in China. Despite numerous
reports that speculated his downfall, it would seem that Zhou Yongkang will NOT
in fact face investigation. As the
article explains, it seems unlikely that Zhou would make such a public
appearance if he were under political pressure.
So what’s going on?
If he won’t face investigation, why were there so many whispers, subtle
hints, and NOT SO SUBTLE hints that suggested he would be taken down? There seem to be a few possibilities:
1)
The media was wrong from the start. It might be the case that the media simply
got things WRONG. Perhaps they cooked up
a story that took on a life of its own, or maybe they misread the Party’s
signals. However, given how much
attention Zhou attracted (and the Caixin report that went after his son), it
seems unlikely that the Zhou scandal was ‘much ado about nothing’.
2)
Zhou Yongkang is acting without the Party’s
blessing, and conducted the visit on his own.
This seems rather unlikely, given the extent to which personal relations
dominate Chinese politics; visits and meetings often bear much more significance
than their official purpose. However, it
IS possible that Zhou is acting on his own.
While it is an extremely dangerous move, his ally Bo Xilai has already
proven that not everyone is willing to play by the rules anymore (the
former-mayor refused to go quietly, unlike other officials who were taken down
and left the stage as discreetly as possible).
While this possibility seems extremely unlikely, it’s worth noting that
if anyone could pull it off, it would be someone like Zhou Yongkang: he has
connections throughout the Chinese government, including influential political
arenas such as the police, the courts, and the much-feared Discipline
Commission. Given that investigation of
a Standing Committee Member (past or present) is taboo, the idea that Zhou
could be ‘thumbing his nose’ at Xi is at least worth exploring, if not entirely
realistic.
3)
As mentioned in the report, this public appearance
is a way for Zhou to show that he has ‘mended the fence’ with Party
leadership. As many analysts noted
before, formally charging Zhou would be a MAJOR breech of protocol, given his
influence and previous post on the Standing Committee. As the whole purpose of Bo’s takedown was to
UNIFY the Party, it seemed unlikely that Xi would make such a daring move (that
could potentially destabilize the Party even more by showing that Xi wasn’t
going to follow the rules). Most likely,
Xi and his supporters turned up the heat on Zhou in the media; not enough to
remove him from power, but enough to establish Xi’s authority and warn other
cadres to fall in line. As the Third
Plenary Congress will take place in November, this reconciliation with the
Party seems to be arriving just in time.
Zhou has public acknowledged Xi Jinping’s authority, and the Party can
start legislation in November knowing that everyone will dance to Xi’s tune.
I’m not sure if we can expect anything more from
this story, but should the vast majority of analysts be wrong, and this meeting
does NOT spell a ‘clearing of the air’, things could turn sour for Zhou very
quickly. Most likely, however, Zhou’s
name will take a quick bow and disappear from the headlines.
Zhou Yongkang
makes an appearance at his Alma mater, corruption investigation seems unlikely
Last updated October 1st, 2013 GMT
12:31 PM
Zhou Yongkang visits his alma
mater, the China Petroleum University, attending an exhibit highlighting school
spirit
On Tuesday, Former Politburo
Standing Committee member and former head of the Ministry of Public Security
Zhou Yongkang visited his alma mater.
This is his first public appearance since foreign media first speculated
that he would be investigated for corruption.
Ten years ago, the now
70-year-old Zhou Yongkang was one of the most powerful figures in Chinese
politics.
The China Petroleum University’s
website displayed pictures of Zhou Yongkang smiling, shaking hands, and
catching up with old classmates, casting doubt on earlier speculation that he
would be investigated for corruption.
In China, if a leader is
suspected of illegal activity, he or she will disappear from the public eye
right up until they are formally convicted.
In November of last year, Zhou
Yongkang resigned from his most influential post as a member of the Politburo Standing
Committee.
The Hong Kong-based English
language paper South China Morning Post reported
in August of this year that Zhou Yongkang was facing investigation for corruption.
Chinese news networks based in
the United States also reported that Zhou Yongkang was facing a corruption
investigation, but later removed this information for unspecified reasons.
However, sources connected
with the Chinese leadership revealed last month to Reuters that, as a political
ally of former-mayor of Chongqing Bo Xilai, Zhou Yongkang was only assisting
the authorities with a corruption investigation; he himself was not the target
of investigation.
Among other signs that Zhou
Yongkang was possibly not in trouble, websites of the major Chinese media
networks carried two reports mentioning his name after he was said to be under
investigation.
At the end of August, Chinese
reports broadcasted officials, including Xi Jinping and Zhou Yongkang, giving
flowers when Liu Xiyao, one of China’s top nuclear scientists, passed away.
On September 5th,
the Shenzhen Special Zone Daily reported that Xi Jinping, Wen Jiabao, Zhou
Yongkang, and others expressed their condolences when an old cadre of the
Justice Department, Wang Ning, passed away.
Since taking office in March,
Chairman Xi Jinping has stated that corruption is the most serious threat to
the Communist Party’s survival, warning that the fight against corruption would
fight both “tigers and flies” together.
Having previously handles
issues of China’s domestic security, Zhou Yongkang continuously delt with
matters concerning the police, armed police, investigative organs, the courts,
and domestic intelligence.
During his term in office,
government funding for maintaining domestic stability surpassed funding for the
individual budgets of national defense, medicine, and eduation.
During Zhou Yongkang’s time in
office, he also managed matters concerning energy resources, very much related
to his background in petroleum.
Not long ago, some of Zhou
Yongkang’s old allies and subordinates from his time managing energy resources were
taken down in quick succession, being subjected to corruption
investigations. The outside world once
believed these takedowns to be the prelude to moves against Zhou Yongkang.
According to many media
reports, on September 25th the site CaiXin, which had broken numerous
scandalous stories concerning Zhou Yongkang’s family, hinted that when Zhou and
his son Zhou Bin exchanged positions in the Petroleum business, it was the
first time his family’s connections between government and business were made
apparent.
However, two days later the
report was deleted. Some analysts
believe that the purpose of this report was clear: to build even more support
for Xi Jinping’s fight against corruption and “big tigers”. The fact that it was deleted so quickly shows
the intensity of the power struggle among Party leadership.
Some analysts believe this
report to be a way of clearing away the reports of Zhou Yongkang being
investigated.
Author: Tong Qing Editor: Li Li
Translated by: Paul Orner
Original Chinese: http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/china/2013/10/131001_china_zhouyongkang_reappearance.shtml
No comments:
Post a Comment