Saturday, September 14, 2013

The Thames on China's Corruption Statistics

Another article on corruption in China.  Not particularly groundbreaking, but still a good overview of some of the statistics coming out of China’s Supreme People’s Court.  The Thames Herald’s approach is flawed (quite obviously so in a few aspects): they argue that the decrease in the number of corruption cases show that Xi Jinping’s administration is not serious on tackling corruption.  There are a few things to keep in mind though.  

1) As they admit, the change in leadership could certainly cause a hiccup in the number of corruption cases filed, as government offices welcome new officials and take time to adjust.  
2) In a rather glaring error, they cite statistics from the first quarter of this year, and argue that the slower pace of investigations reflect poorly on Xi’s administration.  And yet, as the report itself states, Xi did not fully come into power until March.  
3) Looking at the number of investigations and cases from the first quarter is, in China, similar to extrapolating annual economic estimates from the Christmas shopping season in America.  The numbers are, no doubt, severely skewed by the Chinese New Year celebrations, during which nearly the whole country shuts down for close to a month. 
4) The report does a good job of analyzing the numbers, but ignores just WHO has been prosecuted.  It focuses on quantity at the expense of quality: it ignores the fact that corrupt officials are being investigated and prosecuted at higher and higher levels of government.

Still, the overall message of the article is correct (if not obvious): corruption is so endemic in the Party and government that no anti-corruption campaign can ever truly root out corruption.  The process of prosecuting doesn’t truly require finding out which officials are corrupt.  Rather, the Discipline Commission could choose any official at random and discover their backroom deals and hidden assets in short order.  Still, the campaign can help quell public outrage, especially as China’s economic growth begins to slow down.

Why the Anti-Corruption Campaign is “a lot of thunder, but little rain”
Last updated July 9th, 2013, GMT 11:27 AM

Chinese politicians will never truly be anti-corruption.  If they were, everyone would quickly discover that the entire Party and government are corrupt.
Liu Zhijun was sentenced to death (sentence suspended), and yet another corrupt high-official has fallen.  But what are the actual effects of Xi Jinping’s much vaunted campaign?
England’s Thames Herald released an analysis, saying that there is no reason not to take a look at the figures published by authorities.
The Thames Herald cited numbers from China’s Supreme People’s Court, showing that in the first quarter of this year, there were a total of 5,138 cases of corruption, bribery, cronyism, and abuse of power.
Looking at these numbers, should those officials who ‘have problems’ have trouble sleeping at night?  According to the Thames Herald, not yet.
5,138
The report said that China’s propaganda organs will, of course, display these figures as proof of the effectiveness of the anti-corruption campaign.
Even before taking power in March, Xi Jinping stated that he would make fighting corruption a top priority.
Regrettably, according to the Thames Herald, 5,138 cases are no cause for celebration.
The Thames Herald stated that, according to numbers released by the head of China’s Supreme People’s Court, there were over 34,262 cases of corruption last year.
8,581
This means that the average number of corruption cases per quarter last year was 8,581.
Suddenly, the Thames Herald said, 5,138 does not seem as big as it did before.
If the Supreme People’s Court maintains its present rate of prosecution, in total it will handle 20,522 cases of corruption, 14,000 fewer than last year.
Of course, as the Thames Herald admitted, this is only a theoretical analysis; in truth, there are many variables.  For example, the Supreme People’s Court could suddenly increase the speed of prosecution in the second half of the year, or the operation of the court could have been affected by the transfer of power that occurred earlier this year. 
But as the Thames Herald stated, these numbers have caused many China-watchers to reach the same conclusion: China’s anti-corruption campaign has the head of a tiger, but the tail of a fly; the thunder is loud, but there is little rain.
Chinese politicians will never truly be anti-corruption.  If they were, everyone would quickly discover that the entire Party and government are corrupt.
The Thames Herald explained the danger that Xi Jinping is facing: when China’s economic growth registered in the double digits, the people were frustrated with corruption, but they were able to bear it given the improvements in living standards.  Now, the only way to assuage their anger is to see tens of thousands of corrupt officials be punished.
Teng Long and Shang Qing
Translated by: Paul Orner

No comments:

Post a Comment