Another article on corruption in China. Not particularly groundbreaking, but still a
good overview of some of the statistics coming out of China’s Supreme People’s
Court. The Thames Herald’s approach is
flawed (quite obviously so in a few aspects): they argue that the decrease in
the number of corruption cases show that Xi Jinping’s administration is not
serious on tackling corruption. There
are a few things to keep in mind though.
1) As they admit, the change in leadership could certainly cause a
hiccup in the number of corruption cases filed, as government offices welcome
new officials and take time to adjust.
2) In a rather glaring error, they cite statistics from the first
quarter of this year, and argue that the slower pace of investigations reflect
poorly on Xi’s administration. And yet,
as the report itself states, Xi did not fully come into power until March.
3) Looking at the number of investigations
and cases from the first quarter is, in China, similar to extrapolating annual
economic estimates from the Christmas shopping season in America. The numbers are, no doubt, severely skewed by
the Chinese New Year celebrations, during which nearly the whole country shuts
down for close to a month.
4) The report
does a good job of analyzing the numbers, but ignores just WHO has been
prosecuted. It focuses on quantity at
the expense of quality: it ignores the fact that corrupt officials are being
investigated and prosecuted at higher and higher levels of government.
Still, the overall message of the article is correct
(if not obvious): corruption is so endemic in the Party and government that no
anti-corruption campaign can ever truly root out corruption. The process of prosecuting doesn’t truly
require finding out which officials are corrupt. Rather, the Discipline Commission could
choose any official at random and discover their backroom deals and hidden
assets in short order. Still, the
campaign can help quell public outrage, especially as China’s economic growth
begins to slow down.
Why
the Anti-Corruption Campaign is “a lot of thunder, but little rain”
Last updated July 9th, 2013, GMT
11:27 AM
Chinese politicians will never
truly be anti-corruption. If they were,
everyone would quickly discover that the entire Party and government are
corrupt.
Liu Zhijun was sentenced to
death (sentence suspended), and yet another corrupt high-official has
fallen. But what are the actual effects
of Xi Jinping’s much vaunted campaign?
England’s Thames Herald
released an analysis, saying that there is no reason not to take a look at the
figures published by authorities.
The Thames Herald cited
numbers from China’s Supreme People’s Court, showing that in the first quarter
of this year, there were a total of 5,138 cases of corruption, bribery, cronyism,
and abuse of power.
Looking at these numbers,
should those officials who ‘have problems’ have trouble sleeping at night? According to the Thames Herald, not yet.
5,138
The report said that China’s
propaganda organs will, of course, display these figures as proof of the
effectiveness of the anti-corruption campaign.
Even before taking power in
March, Xi Jinping stated that he would make fighting corruption a top priority.
Regrettably, according to the Thames
Herald, 5,138 cases are no cause for celebration.
The Thames Herald stated that,
according to numbers released by the head of China’s Supreme People’s Court,
there were over 34,262 cases of corruption last year.
8,581
This means that the average
number of corruption cases per quarter last year was 8,581.
Suddenly, the Thames Herald
said, 5,138 does not seem as big as it did before.
If the Supreme People’s Court maintains
its present rate of prosecution, in total it will handle 20,522 cases of
corruption, 14,000 fewer than last year.
Of course, as the Thames
Herald admitted, this is only a theoretical analysis; in truth, there are many
variables. For example, the Supreme
People’s Court could suddenly increase the speed of prosecution in the second
half of the year, or the operation of the court could have been affected by the
transfer of power that occurred earlier this year.
But as the Thames Herald
stated, these numbers have caused many China-watchers to reach the same
conclusion: China’s anti-corruption campaign has the head of a tiger, but the
tail of a fly; the thunder is loud, but there is little rain.
Chinese politicians will never
truly be anti-corruption. If they were,
everyone would quickly discover that the entire Party and government are
corrupt.
The Thames Herald explained the
danger that Xi Jinping is facing: when China’s economic growth registered in
the double digits, the people were frustrated with corruption, but they were
able to bear it given the improvements in living standards. Now, the only way to assuage their anger is
to see tens of thousands of corrupt officials be punished.
Teng Long and Shang Qing
Translated
by: Paul Orner
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