The Fate of Zhou Yongkang

The article below is very interesting.  It brings up a number of important questions regarding Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign.  Specifically: “Where is the campaign headed? And “Who’s next up on the chopping block?”  While almost everyone agrees that the motives driving the campaign are not limited to fighting corruption, not everyone agrees on the extent that the campaign is politically motivated.

However, it is undeniable that the most recent roundup of corrupt officials is meant to send a message.  As the article mentions, one by one Zhou Yongkang’s associates are being picked off.  Guo Yongxiang, at the provincial level, and Jiang Jiemin, at the lower national level, are underlings of Zhou.  And while the unwritten rule of “not investigating Standing Committee members” has stood so far, Zhou has proven unable to protect his allies from attack.   Unless he stops trying to protect Bo Xilai and stir up trouble, he may be the next one to fall.

On the other hand, as the article points out, breaking an unwritten rule that has been respected since the Cultural Revolution would send a strong message to Xi’s political rivals.  Earlier in the summer, I believed that the anti-corruption campaign could be easily re-tooled as a political weapon, a threat Xi could brandish against any of his rivals, something to keep them in line.  However, I concluded that he would most likely hold off on using this ace in the hole.  Xi and his allies have to weigh their options carefully.  On the one hand, destroying Zhou Yongkang with a corruption investigation could frighten Xi’s rivals and tamp down any dissent.  On the other hand, it could spark an outpouring of fear and resentment, driving them to take action against him and undermine his authority (authority he must establish during his first year in office).  As one source quoted in the article notes, many within the Party hope that internal investigation and the threat of criminal prosecution will put this Party elder back in line.  However, should Zhou refuse to back down, Xi could be forced to raise the stakes and wager his political clout against that of his current enemies and the new enemies he would make by violating Party tradition.  The outcome of such an action is unclear, and Xi should think long and hard before taking such a desperate action so early in his post as the paramount leader of China.

(A note about the title: the title is alluding to two sayings/phrases in Chinese.  'Hunting tigers' refers to Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign, which he claimed would both "swat flies and hunt tigers."  In the other words, it would root out corruption at all levels, investigating and prosecuting both low-level municipal officials and high-level national officials.  "Riding the tiger" refers to a Chinese saying "When riding a tiger, it is tough to get off."  This saying is used to talk about situations where someone starts a course of events or uses a certain strategy that may be easy to begin but hard to stop.  It asks if Xi is continuing the campaign or if he is losing control of where the campaign is headed.)

Japanese media: Is Xi Jinping hunting or riding the tiger?

Tong Qing

BBC Chinese – Special Japan Correspondent

Last updated: September 5^th, 2013, GMT 7:45

Translated by: Paul Orner

Zhou Yongkang’s associates are being taken down one by one, yet he himself remains untouched

After foreign media widely reported the news that corruption investigations that closing in on Zhou Yongkang, Japanese mainstream media seems to have spent some time verifying the information, and began to disseminate some of their findings through reports and commentaries this week.

Going through reports from the past few days, it appears that the fallen officials all have one thing in common: State Council Director of Standardization Administration Jiang Jiemin and former Vice-Governor of Sichuan Guo Yongxiang, both of whom who are under investigation, were both officials with close relations with Zhou Yongkang while they worked under him at the China National Petroleum Corporation.

In the report, it emerged that after the open prosecution of Bo Xilai, Xi Jinping’s administration began to speed up the investigation of Zhou Yongkang’s “oil helpers.”

However, each report has pointed out that Xi Jinping’s administration has been proceeding cautiously, seeking conclusive evidence; but a final decision regarding whether or not to investigate Zhou Yongkang has not been reached.  It is possible that the issue has not yet been decided, but they estimate a decision will be reached before the third meeting of the 18^th National Congress this November.

Undermining the influence of political rivals

Among the statements the Asahi Shimbun collected from the Justice Department, one official stated that since the Cultural Revolution, there is no precedent for the Chinese government investigating a corruption case at the level of the Standing Committee.  If there was an open investigation of the Party leadership, it would damage the prestige of the Party.

The report quoted the official as stating: “At present those within the part believe that internal investigations will be enough to strike out at Zhou Yongkang and weaken his influence.  That alone is enough” as cautious as it is severe.  The report quoted sources in the diplomatic world as saying that after the scandal of Bo Xilai and his wife broke, foreign media believed that the stories of then-Vice-Chairman Xi jinping and then-Premier Wen Jiabao’s relatives’ wealth came from Zhou Yongkang, a supporter of Bo Xilai.

   

According to reports, some analysts hold that this event made Xi Jinping’s administration believe that establishing a stable regime meant purging forces that threatened unity within the Party.

A report in the Japan Economic Shimbun titled “Xi Jinping seeks to clear out political competition, takes aim at Bo and Zhou” explained that Zhou Yongkang supported Bo Xilai, just as Jiang Zemin once supported Zhou Yongkang.

At the same time, the Japanese report showed that the first step in Xi Jinping’s “Swatting flies and hunting tigers” anti-corruption campaign placed him in cooperation with former-Chairman Hu Jintao.

Stable regime a priority

Bo Xilai has denied all accusations, and according to some sources, those within the Party believe that Zhou Yongkang is controlling things behind the scenes, causing Xi’s administration to add pressure to Zhou.  Should Bo appeal the charges, they expect that Xi will add even more pressure.

The Economic Shimbun also quoted those within the Party as saying that it has not yet been decided whether or not Zhou will be investigated.

The report pointed out that investigating Zhou Yongkang would not only signal the end of the unwritten rule of not investigating members of the Standing Council, but it could give Xi’s political rivals reason to undermine his regime.  Xi Jinping’s regime is carefully considering this risk.

Jiji Press also quoted many Party sources as stating that the investigation of Jiang Jiemin “uncovered many of the mutual interests between Zhou Yongkang and his ‘oil helpers’, and the hidden assets of Zhou Yongkang’s family members are now being investigated.”  However “whether or not the precedent of not investigating members of the Standing Committee and holding them criminally responsible, at this time it’s still unclear if things will develop in that direction.”